I S W S
           
  M R C C   May-August, 2006
West Nile Virus Mosquito Crossover Dates
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    Experimental Data. For Champaign-Urbana Only.

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During 2006, the models were run weekly from May 2 until August 8 when the model values converged. Shown below are the model results of August 8, which includes a summarization of the all of the model simulations.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE EXCEEDANCE MODEL (Threshold of 81°F):
How to Interpret the Model Results

81°F MAX TEMP MODEL - CURRENT MODEL RUN:

8/8/2006

Based on the current model run there is:

    • a 50 percent chance that the crossover date will be later than

July 30, 2006

    • a 90 percent chance it will be earlier than

July 30, 2006
    • and a 10 percent chance it will be earlier than July 30, 2006

    • The current run of the model has a median crossover date of

July 30, 2006

    • The earliest crossover date projected by the current model run is

July 30, 2006

    • The latest crossover date projected by the current model run is

July 30, 2006

Model Run History for the Current Year

81°F Max Temp Model
Model Run Date 2006 Probability that crossover will occur earlier than given date
Earliest 10 percent 25 percent MEDIAN 75 percent 90 percent Latest
5/2 7/8 7/23 7/30 8/9 8/18

8/28

9/29
5/9 7/8 7/25 7/31 8/10 8/19 8/28 9/29
5/16 7/15 7/26 8/2 8/11 8/21 9/1 10/5
5/23 7/21 7/28 8/5 8/13 8/23 9/3 10/5
5/30 7/18 7/23 7/28 8/5 8/16 8/22 9/21
6/6 7/20 7/24 8/2 8/6 8/15 8/20 9/18
6/13 7/22 7/26 8/1 8/6 8/15 8/23 9/17
6/20 7/24 7/26 7/30 8/3 8/11 8/17 9/12
6/27 7/25 7/26 7/30 8/3 8/8 8/15 9/8
7/4 7/26 7/26 7/28 8/1 8/6 8/12 8/26
7/11 7/28 7/28 7/30 8/2 8/6 8/10 8/26
7/18 7/27 7/27 7/27 7/28 8/1 8/5 8/24
7/25 7/30 7/30 7/30 7/30 8/1 8/3 8/15
8/1 7/30 7/30 7/30 7/30 7/30 7/30 7/30
8/8 7/30 7/30 7/30 7/30 7/30 7/30 7/30

Graph of 81F Max Temp Model Data


DEGREE DAY MODEL:
How to Interpret the Model Results

DEGREE DAY MODEL - CURRENT MODEL RUN: 8/8/2006
Based on the current model run there is:

    • a 50 percent chance that the crossover date will be later than

August 3, 2006

    • a 90 percent chance it will be earlier than

August 3, 2006
    • and a 10 percent chance it will be earlier than August 3, 2006

    • The current run of the model has a median crossover date of

August 3, 2006

    • The earliest crossover date projected by the current model run is

August 3, 2006

    • The latest crossover date projected by the current model run is

August 3, 2006

Model Run History for the Current Year

Degree Day Model
Model Run Date 2006 Probability that crossover will occur earlier than given date
Earliest 10 percent 25 percent MEDIAN 75 percent 90 percent Latest
5/2 7/6 7/22 7/30 8/10 8/22 8/30 9/18
5/9 7/8 7/23 7/31 8/11 8/23 8/31 9/18
5/16 7/12 7/24 8/2 8/12 8/25 9/1 9/20
5/23 7/16 7/28 8/6 8/15 8/27 9/5 9/20
5/30 7/12 7/23 7/31 8/9 8/19 8/29 9/15
6/6 7/15 7/25 8/2 8/9 8/18 8/28 9/14
6/13 7/19 7/25 8/3 8/12 8/20 8/27 9/14
6/20 7/18 7/25 8/2 8/10 8/16 8/23 9/10
6/27 7/17 7/28 8/2 8/9 8/14 8/21 9/5
7/4 7/18 7/29 8/1 8/8 8/13 8/17 8/31
7/11 7/27 8/1 8/4 8/9 8/14 8/20 8/31
7/18 7/27 8/1 8/3 8/6 8/11 8/15 8/27
7/25 8/1 8/3 8/5 8/7 8/10 8/14 8/26
8/1 8/3 8/3 8/3 8/3 8/3 8/4 8/10
8/8 8/3 8/3 8/3 8/3 8/3 8/3 8/3

Graph of Degree Day Model Data

 


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2006
2005


NOTE: These models were derived from Champaign-Urbana, Illinois data.
the threshold temperature may vary regionally.

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