RESEARCH: WEST NILE VIRUS IN ILLINOIS

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About the Crossover Dates
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CHAMPAIGN-URBANA CROSSOVER MODEL
Experimental Data, for Champaign-Urbana Only — 2012

 

During 2012, the models were run weekly from May 2 until July 18 when the model values converged. Shown below are the model results of July 18, which includes a summarization of the all of the model simulations.


MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE EXCEEDANCE MODEL (Threshold of 80°F):

How to interpret the model results -

81°F MAX TEMP MODEL - CURRENT MODEL RUN: 7/18/2012
Based on the current model run there is:
    • a 50 percent chance that the crossover date will be later than July 12, 201
    • a 90 percent chance it will be earlier than July 12, 2012
    • and a 10 percent chance it will be earlier than July 12, 2012
    • The current run of the model has a median crossover date of July 12, 2012
    • The earliest crossover date projected by the current model run is July 12, 2012
    • The latest crossover date projected by the current model run is July 12, 2012

Model Run History for 2012 -

81°F Max Temp Model
Model Run Date 2012 Probability that crossover will occur earlier than given date
Earliest 10 percent 25 percent MEDIAN 75 percent 90 percent Latest
5/2 7/1 7/15 7/21 7/30 8/10 8/18 9/16
5/9 7/6 7/18 7/22 7/31 8/12 8/20 9/21
5/16 7/6 7/11 7/17 7/23 8/2 8/11 9/13
5/23 7/7 7/13 7/17 7/22 8/2 8/8 9/11
5/30 7/13 7/17 7/22 7/27 8/3 8/11 9/12
6/6 7/13 7/15 7/18 7/23 7/30 8/5 8/31
6/13 7/12 7/13 7/15 7/18 7/22 7/28 8/11
6/20 7/13 7/13 7/14 7/16 7/19 7/23 8/10
6/27 7/12 7/12 7/12 7/13 7/15 7/16 7/22
7/4 7/14 7/14 7/14 7/14 7/14 7/14 7/14
7/11 7/12 7/12 7/12 7/12 7/12 7/12 7/12
7/18 7/12 7/12 7/12 7/12 7/12 7/12 7/12

Graph of 81F Max Temp Model Data


DEGREE DAY MODEL:

How to Interpret the Model Results -

DEGREE DAY MODEL - CURRENT MODEL RUN: 7/18/2012
Based on the current model run there is:
    • a 50 percent chance that the crossover date will be later than July 17, 2012
    • a 90 percent chance it will be earlier than July 17, 2012
    • and a 10 percent chance it will be earlier than July 17, 2012
    • The current run of the model has a median crossover date of July 17, 2012
    • The earliest crossover date projected by the current model run is July 17, 2012
    • The latest crossover date projected by the current model run is July 17, 2012

Model Run History for 2012 -

Degree Day Model
Model Run Date 2012 Probability that crossover will occur earlier than given date
Earliest 10 percent 25 percent MEDIAN 75 percent 90 percent Latest
5/2 7/4 7/17 7/24 8/4 8/14 8/22 9/14
5/9 7/6 7/19 7/26 8/5 8/16 8/25 9/15
5/16 7/5 7/15 7/22 8/1 8/12 8/19 9/11
5/23 7/6 7/15 7/22 7/29 8/9 8/15 9/6
6/6 7/13 7/18 7/24 8/1 8/8 8/16 9/2
6/13 7/14 7/19 7/25 7/31 8/6 8/11 8/27
6/20 7/14 7/21 7/25 7/31 8/5 8/9 8/19
6/27 7/14 7/20 7/22 7/25 7/30 8/2 8/10
7/4 7/18 7/20 7/21 7/22 7/25 7/28 8/8
7/11 7/18 7/18 7/18 7/18 7/18 7/18 7/18
7/18 7/17 7/17 7/17 7/17 7/17 7/17 7/17


Graph of Degree Day Model Data


These graphs show the results of the individual model runs so far this season. As more of the “actual” weather is included in the model runs (i.e. as the summer progresses) and less “probable” weather (i.e. past climatology) is included, the plots of the dates will tend to converge on the crossover date.

NOTE: These models were derived from Champaign-Urbana, Illinois data. The threshold temperature may vary regionally.

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